Hard to decarbonise sectors like long distance trucking, long distance ocean freight and long-haul aviation have few options outside of functionally equivalent renewable fuels to replace fossil incumbents.
In the last 3 years there has been a frenzy of investment into refineries that can convert vegetable oils/fats into renewable diesel and jet fuel. As of September 2022, there are approximately 100 billion L of renewable diesel/SAF facilities under construction or planning. The elephant in the room is that there is no where near enough vegetable oils and fats from existing resources available to feed these.
This feedstock gap has the potential to unlock new resources like algal biofuels or cover crops, but has also opened the door to other alternatives like synthetic Electro fuels and ethanol to jet options.
The key take home is that the trilemma of low emissions/affordable/fuel security and the sheer scale of current consumption means there is no silver bullet and multiple pathways and feedstocks will be required in combination with continuing penetration of electrification and efficiency gains.
